Weather for New England and the Northeast

SYNOPSIS
A wave of low pressure brings an area of snow across central to northern New Hampshire and western Maine through this morning, followed by warming conditions this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to rise into Tuesday before a cold front moves through Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High pressure then returns for the end of the week through the first half of the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
620 AM Update – The latest radar trends suggest snowfall is occurring at lower amounts than expected as the wave of low pressure moves across the region. Snowfall amounts have been adjusted downward to better align with observations. Accumulating snow is still expected from the mountains into the Capital District of Maine and toward the Mid Coast, with snow tapering off around 8 to 9 AM.

Previous Discussion – A wave of low pressure is tracking east-southeast across northern Vermont and will move offshore near the Mid Coast around 9 AM. Modest frontogenetic forcing at roughly 5000 feet above sea level will provide enough lift to generate snowfall rates of about half an inch per hour along a corridor from the White Mountains to Penobscot Bay. This will result in slick travel conditions for the morning commute. Snowfall amounts along this corridor will range from 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts near the Mid Coast and in the mountains. Snow will taper off from northwest to southeast beginning around sunrise and ending near the Mid Coast by 10 AM. Areas south of this corridor, including the region from Lebanon, New Hampshire, to Sanford, Maine, and points south, will see little to no snow accumulation. The Portland area may see a light coating to half an inch.

Skies will become mostly sunny later this morning and into the afternoon. Behind the wave of low pressure, there will be a period of gusty northwest winds, with gusts up to 25 mph across southern New Hampshire and York County. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to low 50s south of the White Mountains and into southwestern Maine. Highs across central Maine will reach the low 40s, with northern areas remaining in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Tonight will be dry with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will range from the teens in the north to the low 30s in the south.

A stationary front south of New England will lift north as a warm front on Tuesday as a wave of low pressure moves across Quebec. This warm front is not expected to bring precipitation, with partly cloudy skies prevailing. Increasing southerly winds will bring a mild day, with high temperatures reaching the mid-50s in interior southwestern Maine and central New Hampshire, and possibly into the low 60s in southern New Hampshire. Onshore winds will keep coastal areas cooler, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. A trailing cold front will approach the Canadian border late Tuesday afternoon, increasing cloud cover in the mountains and bringing rain showers by Tuesday evening.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
1030 PM Update – No changes to the long-term forecast as of late Sunday evening. Dry weather is expected with alternating periods of warm and cool temperatures. A more significant precipitation event is possible on Sunday.

Previous Discussion –
Overview – A cold front will move through Tuesday night, followed by cooler, more seasonable temperatures on Wednesday. A weak disturbance in the atmosphere may bring a few scattered rain and snow showers on Wednesday, but otherwise, mostly dry conditions with gradually moderating temperatures will persist through Saturday. A potentially stronger storm system may bring widespread rain and gusty winds late Sunday into Monday.

Impacts – No significant weather-related impacts are expected from Tuesday through Saturday. There is a low-end chance of heavy rainfall and gusty winds Sunday night into Monday, but confidence in this forecast remains low.

Forecast Details –
New England will be within a broad warm sector on Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves near Hudson Bay. This will bring temperatures at approximately 2500 feet above sea level to around 40 to 45 degrees from north to south, allowing surface temperatures to range from the upper 40s in the north to around 60 degrees in southern New Hampshire. Cooler temperatures will persist along the coast due to gusty southerly winds off the cold Gulf of Maine. Skies will be partly sunny. A surface cold front will move through Tuesday night but will bring little precipitation, other than a few snow showers in the northern and mountainous areas. Overnight lows will range from the teens in the north to the lower 30s in the south.

Cool Canadian high pressure will settle over New England on Wednesday, leading to seasonably cool high temperatures ranging from the 20s in the north to the lower 40s in the south. A weak disturbance will move through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, possibly bringing a few scattered rain and snow showers. Highs on Thursday will generally reach the 30s and 40s, with overnight lows in the 20s and lower 30s. Temperatures will moderate on Friday and Saturday, with highs reaching the 50s to lower 60s and mainly dry conditions.

Attention then turns to a potentially stronger storm system that could bring widespread rainfall and gusty winds late Sunday or Sunday night, lasting into part of Monday. Some signals suggest the possibility of locally heavy rainfall and strong winds, along with warm temperatures that could contribute to snowmelt. However, since this is still a week away, it is too early to be certain. This system will need to be monitored throughout the week.

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