Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA, 233 AM EDT Monday, September 28, 2026**

**What has Changed**

Some Small Craft Advisories have been dropped, along with the High Surf Advisory. Another period of unsettled weather is possible toward next weekend, but confidence in this outcome remains low.

**Key Messages**

Windswept rain with minor coastal flooding and beach erosion continues Monday. Localized urban and street flooding is possible.

Minor coastal flooding continues through Monday evening.

Conditions improve Tuesday, followed by mainly dry and warmer weather through Friday. Forecast confidence decreases next weekend.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Windswept rain and flooding concerns**

The center of the storm circulation, based on nighttime satellite imagery and surface observations early this morning, is along the New Jersey coast. Regional radar shows bands of precipitation continuing to move north and west into southern New England.

Over the next 12 to 18 hours, the low pressure system will weaken and move north, passing over southern New England this evening before reaching the Gulf of Maine on Tuesday. As a result, a major change in conditions is not expected today.

Low clouds, occasional showers, and breezy winds will continue through much of Monday. With the threat of damaging winds now diminished, the primary concern is flooding from additional rainfall.

Southern New England has received anywhere from 1 inch in western Massachusetts to 5 to 7 inches across Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts during the past 2 to 3 days. The atmosphere remains very moist, even though the storm is no longer as strong as it was earlier. Precipitable water, or PWAT, values are approaching 1.5 inches. PWAT measures the total amount of moisture contained in a column of the atmosphere, and higher values indicate a greater potential for heavy rainfall.

Another 1 to 1.5 inches of rain could fall in some locations before the rain tapers off Monday night. The Flood Watch remains in effect.

Urban areas and locations with poor drainage could experience flooding during the heaviest downpours. A few small rivers and streams will also continue rising into minor flood stage, including the Taunton River at Bridgewater.

**Key Message 2, Minor coastal flooding**

The secondary concern is minor coastal flooding caused by continued northeast winds and high astronomical tides.

Several tide gauges, including Boston Harbor and Nantucket, remained just below flood stage overnight. However, Monday afternoons astronomical high tide will be higher than Sundays high tide. With roughly 1.5 feet of storm surge still expected, minor coastal flooding will continue to be monitored.

The highest coastal water levels are expected around high tide, during the morning along the south coast and during the early afternoon along the east coast.

**Key Message 3, Improving conditions and warmer weather**

The weekends long-duration nor easter will move away to the east-northeast as the upper-level weather pattern becomes less amplified and blocking decreases.

For the remainder of the week, the upper-level flow becomes fairly zonal, meaning the overall flow will be more west to east, with a few weaker weather disturbances moving through during the middle and latter part of the week. These disturbances could produce a light shower or two, but mainly dry weather is expected.

A marked improvement arrives Tuesday as the weakening nor easter moves away and winds shift to the northwest. This northwest flow will bring drier air into southern New England and help end any lingering early morning showers.

Although moisture levels will remain somewhat elevated Tuesday afternoon, there will be little atmospheric support for additional precipitation. Clouds may therefore remain stubborn through much of the afternoon before some breaks develop later in the day.

Northwest winds will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal, although Tuesday will be noticeably warmer than this past weekend. High temperatures should reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

**Wednesday through Friday**

A ridge of higher pressure builds across the southeastern United States this week, while surface high pressure settles south of the region from Wednesday through Friday. This will lead to a stretch of quieter and warmer weather.

Forecast guidance shows a weak disturbance moving through Wednesday night into early Thursday, followed by another weak disturbance Thursday night into Friday. Precipitable water values Wednesday night into Thursday should remain below 1.2 inches and will not line up particularly well with the strongest atmospheric forcing.

Outside of a brief light shower, more clouds than precipitation are expected. Moisture levels increase to around 1.5 inches Thursday night as the second weak disturbance moves through, and a few light showers could brush the region.

No significant impacts are expected from either disturbance.

Temperatures will trend warmer through the middle and latter part of the week, although the latest forecast guidance has become somewhat cooler compared with previous forecasts. Highs should generally return to the lower and middle 70s, with Thursday potentially being the warmest day as temperatures reach the middle to upper 70s.

No notable overnight cold is expected, with lows generally in the 50s.

**Next Weekend**

Forecast confidence decreases next weekend because the weather models are showing considerable disagreement.

Some forecast solutions show a pattern somewhat similar to earlier this week, with another strong area of high pressure over eastern Canada and low pressure developing off the Carolina coast.

Other forecast guidance instead places high pressure over New England while low pressure develops across the Ohio River Valley and approaches the region late in the weekend or early the following week.

Because the possible weather patterns are significantly different at this time range, the forecast is likely to change as the weather models come into better agreement.